Okay, quick and dirty summary as the race isn't far away:
Dylan Thomas is still very beatable for my money when he steps down to 10f, and taking last year's race into account there's definitely claims that he doesn't like the course or the going as much as Notnowcato. If it develops into another tactical battle then I could see Notnowcato having a chance to repeat his Sandown form with Authorized, but I don't see that being a problem here as there is a clear indication from the earlier races that the horses will come down the middle, slightly favoring the stands side. I think Authorized will cruise around as he did in the Dante and given the solid pace that the Coolmore pacemaker will surely be encouraged to provide for Dylan Thomas, I think he'll have no problems making up for his Eclipse eclipse. If there's one other horse I do like in the line-up it's Asiatic Boy, I think he will come on a ton for his first run and for the step up in trip. I can't see him beating Authorized, but I could see him beating one or two of the others as they wear each other out. Duke of Marmalade is clearly a very good miler, but he'd need to improve at the very least a half stone to win here, and I think he'd prefer a quicker surface, too. So, then:
1st: Authorized
2nd: Asiatic Boy
3rd: Notnowcato
Tuesday 21 August 2007
Wednesday 8 August 2007
Acquisitions
Godolphin have once again been strengthening the ranks of their Darley stallion portfolio with the news that Teofilo, last season's champion 2 year old in Europe and the winter favorite for the 2000 Guineas and Derby, will stand at Darley's Kildangan Stud in Co. Kildare from 2008. Jim Bolger will retain ownership of the horse, but in light of recent purchases of Street Sense and Hard Spun in the US, Admire Moon in Japan and Authorized in Britain, it's clear that Godolphin has decided that enough is enough when it comes to the current dominance that their rivals Coolmore have been enjoying for the past few years.
The other most significant aspect of the deal is the identity of Teofilo's sire - Galileo. Put together with Authorized (by Montjeu), it's clear that Sheikh Mohammed has completed his U-turn with regard to his decision not to purchase any progeny of Coolmore stallions, into which category Galileo, Montjeu and their sire Sadler's Wells all fall.
Meanwhile, Coolmore themselves haven't been standing still. Their three main owners (John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith) have plunged for the impressive unbeaten two year old Myboycharlie. The colt will remain with trainer Tommy Stack for now, but, despite assurances to the contrary, the decision has been taken not to supplement him for the G1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday. This is because he would be coming up against Henrythenavigator, currently the colt who appears to be Coolmore's number one juvenile, and ideally for the new owners these two wouldn't meet until next year's 2000 Guineas at the earliest.
What this has robbed us of is potentially one of the most intriguing two year old matchups of the year so far. The winner of the Pheonix has ended up as one the season's top rated juveniles of their sex in each of the last four years, but we will have to wait a little longer before we see any potential champions clashing this year.
The other most significant aspect of the deal is the identity of Teofilo's sire - Galileo. Put together with Authorized (by Montjeu), it's clear that Sheikh Mohammed has completed his U-turn with regard to his decision not to purchase any progeny of Coolmore stallions, into which category Galileo, Montjeu and their sire Sadler's Wells all fall.
Meanwhile, Coolmore themselves haven't been standing still. Their three main owners (John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith) have plunged for the impressive unbeaten two year old Myboycharlie. The colt will remain with trainer Tommy Stack for now, but, despite assurances to the contrary, the decision has been taken not to supplement him for the G1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday. This is because he would be coming up against Henrythenavigator, currently the colt who appears to be Coolmore's number one juvenile, and ideally for the new owners these two wouldn't meet until next year's 2000 Guineas at the earliest.
What this has robbed us of is potentially one of the most intriguing two year old matchups of the year so far. The winner of the Pheonix has ended up as one the season's top rated juveniles of their sex in each of the last four years, but we will have to wait a little longer before we see any potential champions clashing this year.
Saturday 4 August 2007
Metal Gear 20th Anniversary Metal Gear Solid Collection
I received my Limited Edition MGS boxset this morning, and I have to say it's a bit swanky. Here are some quick pics:
Now to order the 20th anniversary soundtrack!
Update: I've now put up some better pics and a bit of description over at Allaboutthegames, and my OST is on its way!
Now to order the 20th anniversary soundtrack!
Update: I've now put up some better pics and a bit of description over at Allaboutthegames, and my OST is on its way!
Wednesday 1 August 2007
A Quick Sussex Stakes Prediction
I remain to be entirely convinced with Excellent Art, such is the manner of his running style and also the question marks that surrounded Cockney Rebel's fitness last time out at Ascot, when Excellent Art scored by a neck from Duke of Marmelade. Had Cockney Rebel not run in the race, that form wouldn't look as strong.
Both Ramonti and Jeremy have proven themselves to be high class colts, although it's questionable whether Jeremy will see out the mile well enough. Ramonti will be the form marker, and if he is involved in the finish you'd have to conclude that it will have been a tough race, but not a classic one.
Asiatic Boy is the one I like most, Mike De Kock is making a concerted effort with his horses in the UK this summer (as evidenced by Iridescence's great run last time out) and whilst even he admits that the ground, the track and the surface are all possible stumbling blocks, Asiatic Boy is potentially world class. I think he'll win in a canter.
1st: Asiatic Boy
2nd: Ramonti
3rd: Excellent Art
Race Postscript: I can't believe the price that Ramonti was allowed to go off. Given that Asiatic Boy looked slightly ill at ease on turf, although he by no means travelled badly, and looks as though he will better over another furlong or two, as with his UAE Derby win, (two very real concerns even before the race) the form has worked out pretty much perfectly. Now we await the return of Cockney Rebel and the possibility of Manduro stepping down to a mile to see just exactly who deserves to be crowned champion miler.
Both Ramonti and Jeremy have proven themselves to be high class colts, although it's questionable whether Jeremy will see out the mile well enough. Ramonti will be the form marker, and if he is involved in the finish you'd have to conclude that it will have been a tough race, but not a classic one.
Asiatic Boy is the one I like most, Mike De Kock is making a concerted effort with his horses in the UK this summer (as evidenced by Iridescence's great run last time out) and whilst even he admits that the ground, the track and the surface are all possible stumbling blocks, Asiatic Boy is potentially world class. I think he'll win in a canter.
1st: Asiatic Boy
2nd: Ramonti
3rd: Excellent Art
Race Postscript: I can't believe the price that Ramonti was allowed to go off. Given that Asiatic Boy looked slightly ill at ease on turf, although he by no means travelled badly, and looks as though he will better over another furlong or two, as with his UAE Derby win, (two very real concerns even before the race) the form has worked out pretty much perfectly. Now we await the return of Cockney Rebel and the possibility of Manduro stepping down to a mile to see just exactly who deserves to be crowned champion miler.
Saturday 28 July 2007
King George VI And QE Stakes Preview
Watching the field fall by the wayside in the run up to this race has meant me leaving this preview later and later, and now only just getting it up half an hour before post time. So, without further ado:
Dylan Thomas: On form, definitely a worthy favorite as he is the only top-class Group 1 performer in the field. There have been doubts about him in the week, though, and there is still the possibilty that he won't be up to his top level on a softer surface. Returning to his preferrered 12 furlongs, though, and is still the most obvious choice.
Scorpion: Ballydoyle's second string should never be underestimated, especially when it's a multiple Group 1 winner such as Scorpion. He seems a bit of a monkey these days, and it could be that he just isn't up for it today. If he gets out on the lead and turns it into a stamina test he may well have too much for them, however.
Maraahel: The most consistent of these, and had a trainer who really knows how to win this race. Looking back over his record you'd think he'd be facing another placed effort, and his wins this season don't read quite as well as some seconds and thirds from the two years previous.
Youmzain: Another one who will relish the full 12 furlongs of the race, but may need to be ridden more positively than he was last time out. Would need to improve a few pounds on his best to win, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go close.
Laverock: Probably still too big a price as he has at least as obvious claims as Youmzain. Runs behind Pride and Papal Bull over the last year or so would give him a squeak if Dylan Thomas is below his best.
Prince Flori: Another one whose best form matches up with all bar Dylan Thomas. Not quite his best effort last time out, but he will appreciate the soft surface and put up his best performance of last year when it mattered most in winning the Grosser Preis von Baden. Definitely one for any forecast perms, and is the value bet of the race.
Sergeant Cecil: Shouldn't be entering considerations for a King George at any stage, but the relative paucity of talent on display this year means he is not without his chances. Ignoring his disappointment at Ascot, the run the time before was arguably his best piece of form, and he could well be coming with a strong late run to finish in the places.
The worst King George in over a decade, not a three year old in sight and still it manages to tingle the tastebuds. Ballydoyle seems to hold all the aces, but if Dylan Thomas gets stuck in the going then anything could win. You'll hear the biggest roar of all if the Sergeant were to come crashing down the outside, but here's my call for the first three:
!st: Prince Flori
2nd: Dylan Thomas
3rd: Maraahel
Addendum: Rather sheepishly I have to admit to not having had the time to check how much the ground had dried out on the morning, and can express no surprise at the authority of Dylan Thomas' win.
Dylan Thomas: On form, definitely a worthy favorite as he is the only top-class Group 1 performer in the field. There have been doubts about him in the week, though, and there is still the possibilty that he won't be up to his top level on a softer surface. Returning to his preferrered 12 furlongs, though, and is still the most obvious choice.
Scorpion: Ballydoyle's second string should never be underestimated, especially when it's a multiple Group 1 winner such as Scorpion. He seems a bit of a monkey these days, and it could be that he just isn't up for it today. If he gets out on the lead and turns it into a stamina test he may well have too much for them, however.
Maraahel: The most consistent of these, and had a trainer who really knows how to win this race. Looking back over his record you'd think he'd be facing another placed effort, and his wins this season don't read quite as well as some seconds and thirds from the two years previous.
Youmzain: Another one who will relish the full 12 furlongs of the race, but may need to be ridden more positively than he was last time out. Would need to improve a few pounds on his best to win, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go close.
Laverock: Probably still too big a price as he has at least as obvious claims as Youmzain. Runs behind Pride and Papal Bull over the last year or so would give him a squeak if Dylan Thomas is below his best.
Prince Flori: Another one whose best form matches up with all bar Dylan Thomas. Not quite his best effort last time out, but he will appreciate the soft surface and put up his best performance of last year when it mattered most in winning the Grosser Preis von Baden. Definitely one for any forecast perms, and is the value bet of the race.
Sergeant Cecil: Shouldn't be entering considerations for a King George at any stage, but the relative paucity of talent on display this year means he is not without his chances. Ignoring his disappointment at Ascot, the run the time before was arguably his best piece of form, and he could well be coming with a strong late run to finish in the places.
The worst King George in over a decade, not a three year old in sight and still it manages to tingle the tastebuds. Ballydoyle seems to hold all the aces, but if Dylan Thomas gets stuck in the going then anything could win. You'll hear the biggest roar of all if the Sergeant were to come crashing down the outside, but here's my call for the first three:
!st: Prince Flori
2nd: Dylan Thomas
3rd: Maraahel
Addendum: Rather sheepishly I have to admit to not having had the time to check how much the ground had dried out on the morning, and can express no surprise at the authority of Dylan Thomas' win.
Wednesday 18 July 2007
Prix de l'arc de Triomphe Preview
With Authorized's participation in the King George still up in the air (although looking increasingly unlikely), I thought I'd take a quick look at the Arc picture before something potentially puts itself in the frame at Ascot on Saturday week:
Authorized: Had he skipped the Eclipse and gone straight to the King George he'd still be hovering around the 7/4 mark for the Arc. I see no reason why he can't return to the 12 furlong form he showed in the Derby, the only worry would be how much the Eclipse took out of him, not any flaws it exposed. Still the likely winner, for me.
Zambezi Sun: Visually impressive in the Grand Prix de Paris, and pretty much confirming the French Derby impression that he'd be better over further, he's a colt that makes obvious appeal. If he was trained by Andre Fabre he might already be favorite, and would probably be the most appropriate winner according to recent trends.
Soldier of Fortune: Won the Irish Derby by so far that it would be easy to assume that there was some reason other than pure ability as to why he finished nine lengths clear. I'm not convinced that he'll be as good back on a sounder surface.
Manduro: My horse of the year so far. The trainer's plan to step back to a mile to contest the Jacques le Marois before attempting 12 furlongs for 'the one and only time' in the Arc is bold, but it's a tougher ask than anything else in the field will have faced. With the recent dominance of three year olds in the Arc, it may be too much to overcome for this older horse. I'd love nothing more though than for him to win it and go on to claim the Breeders Cup Classic, too.
Dylan Thomas: We'll know more about his wellbeing after the King George, but he's not a horse I'd like to stake my house on. Could be one race too many for him, too, if he runs in another big 10 furlong race before then.
Mandesha: Has threatened to become a superstar over the last season and a half, but is inconsistent. We know she goes well round Longchamp, though, and fillies have put in some very good performances in the race in the last few years.
Lawman: Given how impressive he was last time out over a mile, I'd be amazed if he could stretch his speed long enough to get the mile and a half of the Arc. Undeniably top class, but he'd need the race to be run exactly to suit him, and I can't see that happening.
Vodka: The first filly to win the Japanese Derby in 64 years, and the horse I hold my antepost voucher for. She faded into eighth late on last time out in the Takarazuka Kinen, a race run at break neck pace and one in which she ran far too freely. Given a break, a proper prep race and a jockey with the confidence to ride her as she was in the Derby, I think she's still got a massive chance. The common opinion on Japanese horses was undoutably tainted by Deep Impact's run in last year's Arc, where his chances were ruined by a lack of a prep race and the atypical ride he was given by Yutaka Take. This is plainly the wrong view to take on all other known form, and I still treat last year's Arc form with almost as much scepticism as the form from Royal York two years ago.
Airmail Special: He has the right trainer for the race, but antepost confidence in him before his defeat behind Zambezi Sun last time seems unfounded now. It was his fifth race of the year, though, and he could benefit from a little break.
Peeping Fawn: Has looked a real top class filly in both her two previous starts, and is one of the most improved horses in training from the start of the year. Has raced an almost incredible (for a G1 horse) eight times already this year, and despite the fact that she seems to thrive on her racing, a real potential battle with Light Shift at Goodwood could end up being her last huge effort of the year.
Scorpion: Ability is clearly there, but desire to use it is not always. Would need to improve a few pounds on all known form, anyway, and this looks unlikely at this stage of his career based on what we've seen so far this year.
Saddex: A horse well and truly on the up, comfortable when winning a competitive G2 last time out, he could be one of the dark horses for the race. Not an obvious winner, but there is the chance for the race to cut up a bit and he may well have a chance of a place.
Meisho Samson: Winner of the Japanese 2,000 Guineas and Derby last year, has been very consistent in three starts this term. A win in the two mile Tenno Sho proves his stamina, and a half length defeat to Admire Moon last time must not be underestimated. Would need to improve six or seven pounds to really have a chance, though, and that's tough after flying half way around the world.
A race potentially lacking the star power of the champions (Montjeu, High Chaparral, Hurrican Run) that have run in it in the last few years, although Authorized could yet fit the bill, it is still a close and fascinating affair. If I was pushed into calling the first three home:
1st: Authorized
2nd: Manduro
3rd: Vodka
Authorized: Had he skipped the Eclipse and gone straight to the King George he'd still be hovering around the 7/4 mark for the Arc. I see no reason why he can't return to the 12 furlong form he showed in the Derby, the only worry would be how much the Eclipse took out of him, not any flaws it exposed. Still the likely winner, for me.
Zambezi Sun: Visually impressive in the Grand Prix de Paris, and pretty much confirming the French Derby impression that he'd be better over further, he's a colt that makes obvious appeal. If he was trained by Andre Fabre he might already be favorite, and would probably be the most appropriate winner according to recent trends.
Soldier of Fortune: Won the Irish Derby by so far that it would be easy to assume that there was some reason other than pure ability as to why he finished nine lengths clear. I'm not convinced that he'll be as good back on a sounder surface.
Manduro: My horse of the year so far. The trainer's plan to step back to a mile to contest the Jacques le Marois before attempting 12 furlongs for 'the one and only time' in the Arc is bold, but it's a tougher ask than anything else in the field will have faced. With the recent dominance of three year olds in the Arc, it may be too much to overcome for this older horse. I'd love nothing more though than for him to win it and go on to claim the Breeders Cup Classic, too.
Dylan Thomas: We'll know more about his wellbeing after the King George, but he's not a horse I'd like to stake my house on. Could be one race too many for him, too, if he runs in another big 10 furlong race before then.
Mandesha: Has threatened to become a superstar over the last season and a half, but is inconsistent. We know she goes well round Longchamp, though, and fillies have put in some very good performances in the race in the last few years.
Lawman: Given how impressive he was last time out over a mile, I'd be amazed if he could stretch his speed long enough to get the mile and a half of the Arc. Undeniably top class, but he'd need the race to be run exactly to suit him, and I can't see that happening.
Vodka: The first filly to win the Japanese Derby in 64 years, and the horse I hold my antepost voucher for. She faded into eighth late on last time out in the Takarazuka Kinen, a race run at break neck pace and one in which she ran far too freely. Given a break, a proper prep race and a jockey with the confidence to ride her as she was in the Derby, I think she's still got a massive chance. The common opinion on Japanese horses was undoutably tainted by Deep Impact's run in last year's Arc, where his chances were ruined by a lack of a prep race and the atypical ride he was given by Yutaka Take. This is plainly the wrong view to take on all other known form, and I still treat last year's Arc form with almost as much scepticism as the form from Royal York two years ago.
Airmail Special: He has the right trainer for the race, but antepost confidence in him before his defeat behind Zambezi Sun last time seems unfounded now. It was his fifth race of the year, though, and he could benefit from a little break.
Peeping Fawn: Has looked a real top class filly in both her two previous starts, and is one of the most improved horses in training from the start of the year. Has raced an almost incredible (for a G1 horse) eight times already this year, and despite the fact that she seems to thrive on her racing, a real potential battle with Light Shift at Goodwood could end up being her last huge effort of the year.
Scorpion: Ability is clearly there, but desire to use it is not always. Would need to improve a few pounds on all known form, anyway, and this looks unlikely at this stage of his career based on what we've seen so far this year.
Saddex: A horse well and truly on the up, comfortable when winning a competitive G2 last time out, he could be one of the dark horses for the race. Not an obvious winner, but there is the chance for the race to cut up a bit and he may well have a chance of a place.
Meisho Samson: Winner of the Japanese 2,000 Guineas and Derby last year, has been very consistent in three starts this term. A win in the two mile Tenno Sho proves his stamina, and a half length defeat to Admire Moon last time must not be underestimated. Would need to improve six or seven pounds to really have a chance, though, and that's tough after flying half way around the world.
A race potentially lacking the star power of the champions (Montjeu, High Chaparral, Hurrican Run) that have run in it in the last few years, although Authorized could yet fit the bill, it is still a close and fascinating affair. If I was pushed into calling the first three home:
1st: Authorized
2nd: Manduro
3rd: Vodka
Sunday 15 July 2007
The Starting Gate
I don't know how many other people out there have the combined interests in thoroughbred horse racing and Japanese pop culture that I do, but at the very least this will serve as proof that I can occasionally get things right when I pick the odd winner. Hopefully.
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