Prix de l'arc de Triomphe Preview

With Authorized's participation in the King George still up in the air (although looking increasingly unlikely), I thought I'd take a quick look at the Arc picture before something potentially puts itself in the frame at Ascot on Saturday week:

Authorized: Had he skipped the Eclipse and gone straight to the King George he'd still be hovering around the 7/4 mark for the Arc. I see no reason why he can't return to the 12 furlong form he showed in the Derby, the only worry would be how much the Eclipse took out of him, not any flaws it exposed. Still the likely winner, for me.

Zambezi Sun: Visually impressive in the Grand Prix de Paris, and pretty much confirming the French Derby impression that he'd be better over further, he's a colt that makes obvious appeal. If he was trained by Andre Fabre he might already be favorite, and would probably be the most appropriate winner according to recent trends.

Soldier of Fortune: Won the Irish Derby by so far that it would be easy to assume that there was some reason other than pure ability as to why he finished nine lengths clear. I'm not convinced that he'll be as good back on a sounder surface.

Manduro: My horse of the year so far. The trainer's plan to step back to a mile to contest the Jacques le Marois before attempting 12 furlongs for 'the one and only time' in the Arc is bold, but it's a tougher ask than anything else in the field will have faced. With the recent dominance of three year olds in the Arc, it may be too much to overcome for this older horse. I'd love nothing more though than for him to win it and go on to claim the Breeders Cup Classic, too.

Dylan Thomas: We'll know more about his wellbeing after the King George, but he's not a horse I'd like to stake my house on. Could be one race too many for him, too, if he runs in another big 10 furlong race before then.

Mandesha: Has threatened to become a superstar over the last season and a half, but is inconsistent. We know she goes well round Longchamp, though, and fillies have put in some very good performances in the race in the last few years.

Lawman: Given how impressive he was last time out over a mile, I'd be amazed if he could stretch his speed long enough to get the mile and a half of the Arc. Undeniably top class, but he'd need the race to be run exactly to suit him, and I can't see that happening.

Vodka: The first filly to win the Japanese Derby in 64 years, and the horse I hold my antepost voucher for. She faded into eighth late on last time out in the Takarazuka Kinen, a race run at break neck pace and one in which she ran far too freely. Given a break, a proper prep race and a jockey with the confidence to ride her as she was in the Derby, I think she's still got a massive chance. The common opinion on Japanese horses was undoutably tainted by Deep Impact's run in last year's Arc, where his chances were ruined by a lack of a prep race and the atypical ride he was given by Yutaka Take. This is plainly the wrong view to take on all other known form, and I still treat last year's Arc form with almost as much scepticism as the form from Royal York two years ago.

Airmail Special: He has the right trainer for the race, but antepost confidence in him before his defeat behind Zambezi Sun last time seems unfounded now. It was his fifth race of the year, though, and he could benefit from a little break.

Peeping Fawn: Has looked a real top class filly in both her two previous starts, and is one of the most improved horses in training from the start of the year. Has raced an almost incredible (for a G1 horse) eight times already this year, and despite the fact that she seems to thrive on her racing, a real potential battle with Light Shift at Goodwood could end up being her last huge effort of the year.

Scorpion: Ability is clearly there, but desire to use it is not always. Would need to improve a few pounds on all known form, anyway, and this looks unlikely at this stage of his career based on what we've seen so far this year.

Saddex: A horse well and truly on the up, comfortable when winning a competitive G2 last time out, he could be one of the dark horses for the race. Not an obvious winner, but there is the chance for the race to cut up a bit and he may well have a chance of a place.

Meisho Samson: Winner of the Japanese 2,000 Guineas and Derby last year, has been very consistent in three starts this term. A win in the two mile Tenno Sho proves his stamina, and a half length defeat to Admire Moon last time must not be underestimated. Would need to improve six or seven pounds to really have a chance, though, and that's tough after flying half way around the world.

A race potentially lacking the star power of the champions (Montjeu, High Chaparral, Hurrican Run) that have run in it in the last few years, although Authorized could yet fit the bill, it is still a close and fascinating affair. If I was pushed into calling the first three home:

1st: Authorized
2nd: Manduro
3rd: Vodka